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The Chosen – The Mossad in Iran

 March, 2015.  Whisked off in the middle of the night by a chopper taking him to a secure underground command center in Tel Aviv, Israeli Prime Minister Dov Dvir is brought up to speed on the greatest crisis ever faced by Israel.  An email message sent by a Mossad  agent, who has access to the highest echelons of the Iranian regime, warns that an Iranian nuclear strike against Israel will take place within forty eight hours, as a direct result of a coup by elite Iranian military units.  When the Ayatollahs –fortified in a bunker in the holy city of Qom – realize that all is lost, they will launch their nuclear warheads at Israel. 

 Meanwhile, Sharon Parker, America’s first female President, faces the ultimate foreign policy acid test, as she strives to carve an historic impression as the leader of the free world while determining the United States’ best course of action in a crisis unequaled in magnitude to any since the  Cuban Missile Crisis.

The Israeli leadership faces hard questions: should they launch a counter-strike against Iran based solely on the word of a solitary agent they’d recruited years before?  Will the United States stand with Israel in taking action?  Can the Iranian missile launch be stopped?  Is it possible to shoot down the Iranian missiles once they’ve been launched?  Should the Israeli public be alerted of the imminent danger at the risk of causing mass hysteria?

 The central characters are thrust, practically against their will, into the brewing crisis: Arnon, a former commander of an elite Israeli commando unit, who left the military after three of his men were killed in a training exercise; Kramer, the man who recruited the Iranian agent for Israel and later quit the Mossad out of sheer frustration, is now, years later, called back in for duty; Morteza, an Iranian student recruited by the Israeli Mossad years earlier, is now in charge of the computer systems for the Iranian nuclear program; Hagar, a carefree young woman, who falls in love with a nameless recluse camping in seclusion on a desert cliff top near the Dead Sea; Shai, the leader of an Israeli commando unit, who is sent on a nearly hopeless mission deep in the heart of Iran –as the clock ticks down to zero.

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5.0 out of 5 stars Very Relevent,February 12, 2012

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Author’s experience in Israeli government contributes to his novel on espionage, politics, Iran

Shabtai Shoval uses his experience with Israeli Defense Forces Intelligence and Prime Minister’s Office to create “The Chosen: The Mossad in Iran”

March 7, 2012 / SHOHAM, Israel

“The Chosen: The Mossad in Iran” (ISBN 1470077965) by Shabtai Shoval shows how one man aims to make a difference with a nuclear Iran. Shoval’s novel takes readers to March 2015, when tensions with Iran and the West are high and dangerous.

“The Chosen” tells the story of the Israeli Mossad, who must protect Israel while the first female president of the United States, the Israeli prime minister and other officials and innocent citizens are confused. All are thrust into the brewing crisis of Israeli leadership, partnership with the United States and an Iranian missile.

The author’s experience working in the Israeli Embassy in Washington, DC, in the Prime Minister’s Office, and in the Israeli security agencies makes him the perfect person to author a book on espionage and the issues occurring in Iran and how they relate to the United States.

Shoval says “The Chosen” will engage readers to read and know more about the “behind the scenes” aspects of the ongoing conflict with Iran  in his book, as it touches on current, hot-button political events.

“The novel is highly relevant to current events; it describes possible US and Israeli covert activities in Iran and what will happen if Iran continues to develop its nuclear weapons,” Shoval says.

“The Chosen: The Mossad in Iran” is available for sale online at Amazon.com and other channels.

About the Author: Shabtai Shoval is the owner of a high-tech company, which specializes in advance security technology for cover operations and intelligence community. Shoval is a former writer for the Israeli Defense Forces Intelligence and has served in an elite combat unit. He also was an advisor to the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

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Direct link:  http://www.prnewschannel.com/2012/03/07/authors-experience-in-israeli-government-contributes-to-his-novel-on-espionage-politics-iran/

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Report: IAF trained for Iran attack

Elite F-15 squadron, two missile subs prepared to destroy nuclear facilities.

IAF pilots have completed their mission training and fighter jets have been prepared for an Israeli attack on Iran, the British Sunday Times reported. The article reported that “the elite 69 strategic F-15 I squadron” had been equipped with weapons that will be tested in combat for the first time, and that two missile submarines were on standby: one in the Persian Gulf and the second in Haifa Bay. The Times also said that special IDF forces would be helicoptered into Iran to take out targets that could not be destroyed in an air strike. Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to the newspaper report, are widely dispersed at some 40 underground sites throughout Iran, which would make any attack by Israel – or any other nation – exponentially more difficult that Israel’s successful attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981. Col. [res] Ze’ev Raz, the former IAF pilot who led the Osirak mission, was quoted by the Times as saying, “What we now have is a lot of targets, which makes the operation much more difficult.” Raz believes an aerial assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities is possible. There are many things that the IAF has done over the past few years that the public is not aware of, and it has made many important advances in mid-air refueling. Israel can strike the Iranian nuclear program, Raz said on Israel’s Channel 1 TV’s Politika program last week. Former IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Uzi Dayan said last week that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, then so would terror organizations, like Hizbullah. “Israel needs to be ready to act on a military option,” Dayan said. “Without getting into details, Israel is capable of doing these things.” When Dayan was head of the National Security Agency, he advised the government not to allow a situation in which Israel, and the world now finds itself, with a radical regime in Tehran on the verge of attaining nuclear weapons. Dayan laid much of the blame on the United States, which allowed this to happen. “The military option does exist, but only if the international community works together. The government that arises in Israel after the elections will have to deal with this issue,” he said. Shabtai Shoval, a former operative in the Israeli intelligence community, who wrote a book that Iran will reach nuclear weapons capability by 2009, says that covert action, for example by the Mossad, is the most interesting option, but would still not stop Tehran’s push for nuclear weapons.

The day before the day after

On judgment day, when the ayatollahs feel that their end is imminent, they are liable to push the button as an act of desperation, thus giving significance to their death.

Shabtai Shoval

Tel Aviv, the Eve of Purim, March 4, 2005, 2:01 A.M., Israel local time.

“I don’t envy him,” the helicopter pilot thought to himself as he glanced behind him. “No other prime minister that came before him has had to wrestle with such a decision.”

The light from a lamp affixed to the armrest of the chair occupied by the prime minister revealed a tense, pale expression on his face, weary eyes that projected worry and concern, the bottom lip subjected to constant chewing. There can be no mistaking what is plainly obvious. It looks as if Prime Minister Dov Dvir is about to explode from all the tension.

Dvir, who noticed the pilot’s discerning look, immediately shifted facial expressions, hastening to shut off the lamp, just in case. The pilot quickly turned his head away from the prime minister, and looked straight ahead. Dvir absentmindedly took a quick peek at his watch. He then glanced out the window, through which it was possible to notice the street lights that lit up the city of Modi’in, the sprawling community tucked neatly between two dark hills. He could hardly believe that less than an hour had elapsed since he was woken by his military secretary, Mordechai Locker, who alerted him to the big news.

He reenacted the brief conversation in his mind. Actually, it’s been 54 minutes to be exact, 54 minutes since life took on a new meaning, 54 minutes since the ringing of the phone violently trespassed his slumber. A familiar, yet startled voice could be heard on the other end of the line.

“It’s me, Locker. We may have a code red on our hands.” The premier was quickly jolted into a state of pained alertness.

A few more minutes passed, and the motorcade of cars, reinforced by a phalanx of security guards, speedily carried him to the helicopter landing pad near the Knesset. Just as the drill called for in these instances, the bodyguards surrounded him tightly, protecting him in a manner so profuse and aggressive that it bordered on hysteria. They rushed him into the helicopter so quickly one could be forgiven for thinking that a Hezbollah unit was nearby, waiting to exact its revenge for the Mughniyeh assassination by aiming its weapons at the chopper.

Everything happened so fast.

Locker joined him near the helicopter. He was gripping a black, James Bond-style suitcase that was attached to his elbow by a metal chain and a handcuff at the end of it. It was the suitcase that contained an electronic code generator, which was given a nickname that conjured up a mixture of affection and horror – “the Lottomat.” Everyone in the prime minister’s inner circle knows that the numbers which the Lottomat produces on the prime minister’s orders signal the beginning. It is the beginning of the end.

Locker’s appearance with the “nuclear suitcase,” a perfectly predictable scenario given the circumstances, shocked the prime minister. The realization of how acute the catastrophe at hand was, suddenly erupted in the premier’s psyche. He didn’t so much as board the helicopter. It was more like he climbed aboard, or was pushed aboard, with the bodyguards shoving him without so much as saying a word. He then stumbled into the seat that was specially reserved for him. The prime minister’s safety belt was buckled for him, all this happening as he tried to catch his breath.

The helicopter took off. He tried to calm down and gather his thoughts. There wasn’t much time before the scheduled landing and the emergency meeting. He reached into his bag and pulled out a stack of documents that was handed to him by Locker just before takeoff. He then clicked on his lamp that he had shut off just moments before. The first document was a copy of an e-mail which was sent to Locker by the Mossad. It was the e-mail that set off the chain reaction.

Date: March 4, 2015

Time: 01:10

Top Secret

To: Military Secretary – Prime Minister’s Office

From: Bureau Chief, Mossad Director

Subject: Synopsis of Red Alert – “Armageddon”

Mossad dir. recommends declaring a “red alert,” including preparations for nuclear war with all the relevant forces for such a situation.

The basis for the recommendation by Mossad head Tamir Pardo – the rebellion staged by the Basij against the ayatollahs has amassed momentum, regime officials and Revolutionary Guard commanders have gone into hiding in a bunker in the holy city of Qom. The rebels are advancing toward Qom and are due to ring the bunker within the next 48 hours.

“Seinfeld,” a Mossad agent embedded in the bunker in Qom – Iran – reports that the heads of the regime have decided to make all the necessary preparations for the launch of missiles, tipped with nuclear warheads, towards Israel. The launch will take place in the event that the rebels manage to surround the bunker holding the regime’s leaders and the ayatollahs in Qom.

Based on a situational assessment and data provided by “Seinfeld,” the Mossad believes that the ayatollahs have resolved to activate the “red alert” in order to:

To deflect the attention of the masses and the rebels away from the assault on the ayatollahs.

To provoke Israel into launching a retaliatory nuclear strike that would bring mass ruin to Iran, thus neutralizing the coup/revolution.

The regime chiefs among the ayatollahs prefer to die as “shahids” who succeeded in destroying “the Zionist entity” rather than dying as tyrants at the hands of the mob, in the event that the rebels manage to penetrate the bunker.

In our assessment, the source and the information are reliable.

There is no confirmation from another source regarding Iranian intentions and preparations to carry out a nuclear strike against Israel.

Dvir lifted his eyes from the document. When the initial signs of an uprising against the ayatollahs began to percolate, Military Intelligence said that finally we had a window of opportunity to free ourselves from the threat of the Iranian nuclear bomb. Why in the hell are we always taken by surprise? He asked himself in frustration. Once again, MI was taken by surprise. Once again, they are going to look for somebody to blame. Just like they did in ’73. Just like they did in Lebanon. Just like they did in the intifada –both the first and the second. And once again the prime minister has to take a decision based on information provided by a lone spy. Only this time it is happening big time. The report of one spy has brought Israel to its most difficult crossroads – a decision on whether to go nuclear.

Dvir once again bit his bottom lip and returned to the report in his hands. The next few lines included information regarding Iran’s nuclear capability, snippets of data that were in large part known to the general public beforehand: the possession of 10-12 nuclear warheads each weighing 25 megatons and affixed to Shihab-4 missiles. According to the report, the Iranian missiles are capable of reaching Israel and sowing cataclysmic destruction. This turn of events means just one thing, he thought to himself. The lives of 6 million Jews are in serious danger. Again, it’s 6 million. This terrible number. And the responsibility is ultimately mine.

He noticed the communications tower protruding from the Kiriya military headquarters in Tel-Aviv through his window. Then he shut off the lamp. The dimmed lights of the helicopter cockpit made him feel more comfortable. “Two minutes to landing,” the pilot said. The prime minister was looking for a way to steel himself for the upcoming meeting.

His entire life’s work has led him to this moment. His family history, his father’s struggle to earn recognition despite his political leanings, the death of his brother during a risky military operation to free hostages from the hands of terrorists, the personal and political battles, the power struggles – they all prepared him for this moment, a moment which will either mark the beginning of a new Israeli reality, or mark the beginning of a reality that does not exist.

Intelligence legwork consists of numerous and repeated analyses of possible scenarios. On the Iranian issue, it is worthwhile to analyze this possible turn of events:

Iran manages to deceive the West and springs a nuclear surprise. Before the West manages to launch a strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Islamic Republic announces that it has completed its nuclear program. In such a scenario, the development of nuclear weapons will not rescue the regime from its domestic political troubles. Student riots in Tehran eventually escalate into a full-blown rebellion against the ayatollah regime.

Similar to other popular uprisings, eventually the most senior officials in the Revolutionary Guards and the top leadership in the ayatollah regime flee to a bunker near the holy city of Qom, with the rebels hot on their trail. Khamenei, the head of the regime, assumes that if and when the rebels manage to break through the forces defending the regime and take over the bunker, they will lynch him and his cohorts.

The ayatollahs are faced with a choice. They can die a meaningless death at the hands of a rowdy mob, or, just moments before the sword is brought down on their necks, they can try to save the situation by launching a nuclear weapon at Israel. The Iranians’ working assumption is that Israel would certainly respond with a serious blow of its own, most likely nuclear in nature, against Iran.

The ayatollahs are hopeful that a nuclear war between Israel and Iran would halt the coup, and that the ensuing chaos would enable them to reassert control over the situation. But even if nuclear war with Israel doesn’t sabotage the rebels’ push, the ayatollahs at the very least would attain a martyr’s death. They will forever be remembered as those who destroyed the Zionist entity (Who cares how many Iranians are killed in the name of a sanctified goal!).

Is this an imaginary scenario disconnected from reality? In truth, this is a question of supreme strategic importance. If a coup is carried out against the Khomeinist government, how will the ayatollahs respond? Can Israel be certain – or can it assume – that they will not elect to use nuclear weapons?

Iran is trying to maneuver between provoking the West for domestic political purposes and deterring an attack, while working toward building a nuclear weapon. Defense Minister Ehud Barak was correct in this regard. From the ayatollahs’ standpoint, nuclear arms guarantee that Iran stakes a position as a regional – perhaps global – superpower. Going nuclear is the sole means to prevent a U.S. and Western invasion in the event that oil prices skyrocket and to create a security cushion that would cement the Khomeinist rule. Even if an observer doesn’t agree with the goals of the Iranian regime, he or she would have to agree that its goal of attaining a nuclear capability is a rational one.

If the Iranian regime is a rational one, then why fear its nuclear power? On the face of it, one can assume that the regime is concerned with its survival, and thus would never use nuclear force while knowing that Israel’s response would be to destroy the country.

By 2015, a “nuclear Iran” will no longer be a theoretical proposition. We are told that a nuclear Iran is not as serious a problem as we are led to believe. Even Tamir Pardo, the head of the Mossad, said recently (if his words were properly understood) that a nuclear Iran does not pose an existential threat to Israel.

According to this approach, when Iran becomes capable of launching a long-range missile tipped with a nuclear warhead, it will never do so due to the balance of terror in relation to the U.S. and Israel. Despite their beliefs in an almighty Allah, the average ayatollah understands that the use of a nuclear weapon against Israel or the U.S. would bring total destruction upon Iran.

Those who believe a nuclear-armed Iran would not pose an existential threat to Israel also say that we ought to learn the history of the Cold War that pitted the U.S. against the Soviet Union. Both superpowers possessed nuclear weapons, a fact which prevented those powers from directly confronting one another. The principle of MAD (mutually assured destruction) holds that any nation that possesses nuclear arms will never attack another nuclear-armed country which would inherently be capable of destroying it.

Iran is not the USSR, and the balance between it and Israel or the U.S. is nothing like that which existed between the superpower during the Cold War. The ayatollah regime is a revolutionary regime that is working to take over the Middle East. Its goal is singular – preserving its survival and power.

An interesting exercise would be to try and understand how other totalitarian regimes in the Middle East would have behaved just before their ouster if they had nuclear weapons. What would Saddam Hussein have done in his final days if he possessed nuclear weapons? Would he use such a weapon against the U.S.? How about Qadhafi? Or Assad? Or Kim Jung-Il?

If these totalitarian dictators felt their regimes (or the “revolution” which they represent) were subject to an existential threat, how would they act if the sword was placed against their necks and they had nuclear arms? What about Hitler? How would he have acted in his final days if he had the bomb? What about Stalin? Would he have hesitated to use the bomb against rebels among his people (after all, he did kill millions of civilians just to solidify his rule)?

The truth is we do not know. Nobody really has an answer to this question.

So what will happen when Iran comes into possession of a nuclear capability and a large-scale revolt takes place against the ayatollahs, as is expected? What will happen when the regime feels that the sword is coming down on its neck and the rebels knock on the doors of the bunker in Qom, their final hiding place? Nobody has an answer to this question, nor can there be an answer to this question. Not even the experts know.

Despite the “rationality” of the regime in its day-to-day conduct, the possibility that Iran comes into possession of nuclear weapons is a terrible one. On judgment day, when the ayatollahs feel that their end is imminent, they are liable to push the button as an act of desperation, thus giving significance to their death. Will we want to live under the shadow of a threat when the rebels are breathing down the ayatollahs’ necks, prompting them to destroy Greater Tel Aviv?

Shabtai Shoval is the author of Ani Hanivkhar [I, the Chosen One], a book about the Mossad’s operations and the war against Iran.

Mutually assured uncertainty

By Yossi Melman

Because Israeli (and American) intelligence has no reliable and accurate intelligence about Iran’s nuclear capability; because Israel has no military option; and mainly because Israel is being compelled to rely on European diplomacy (backed by the IAEA) and American pressure (including a threat to impose sanctions on oil exports, as recommended by Kissinger) to restrain the appetite of the regime of ayatollahs – even if everyone agrees that no such restraint is in sight – Israel must ready itself for a new era which is liable to unfold in the near future, in which Iran will have nuclear weapons.

This is the point of departure of a recently published novel, “Ani hanivhar” (“I the Chosen,” in Hebrew) which centers around the question of what an Israeli prime minister will do if he receives intelligence information that Iranian missiles armed with nuclear warheads will strike Tel Aviv within 48 hours. The author, Shabtai Shoval, is a partner in a startup company with Major General (res.) Amiram Levine, who was deputy chief of the Mossad. For many years Shoval did his reserve duty in the “Control Unit” of Military Intelligence, whose role is to play devil’s advocate and challenge the assessments of the intelligence community. As such, Shoval frequently drew up possible future scenarios.

The novel describes how the Mossad recruits an Iranian student by means of sexual allurements via chat rooms on the Internet. He becomes an agent who ascends to a key position in Iran’s nuclear missiles command, and sends the warning about the intention to launch missiles at Tel Aviv.

In the novel’s future scenario, the prime minister orders the Jericho missiles and the Dolphin submarines, which are armed with nuclear warheads, to be deployed. On at least two occasions in the past, according to foreign reports, Israel placed its nuclear weapons on standby, or made preparations to do so: during the “waiting period” before the Six-Day War in June 1967, and on the third day of the Yom Kippur War (October 8, 1973). Although both cases involved serious crises, which Israel perceived as being liable to endanger its existence, the character of the threats was conventional. If and when Iran acquires nuclear weapons, the threat will bear an entirely different character.

Israeli experts urge covert ops against Iran nukes

YAAKOV KATZ AND ARIEH O’SULLIVAN
Shabtai Shoval: We need to set them back by five years and hope their government falls in the interim.

 A plane crash that killed the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s ground forces last week was most probably not caused by sabotage, leading Israeli analysts say. But it was the type of covert operation, they argue, in which Israel should be engaging as part of its efforts to delay or even possibly thwart Iran‘s nuclear program. “The only real way to operate [against Iran] is through covert operations,” said Shabtai Shoval – a former member of the Israeli intelligence community and the author of a newly-released novel Ani Hanivhar (I, the Chosen) that deals with an Israeli prime minister informed that Iranian nuclear missiles are set to strike Tel Aviv. While Iranian officials blamed bad weather and dilapidated engines for last week’s crash, there was room for speculation that foul play may have had a hand in the death of Brig.-Gen. Ahmad Kazemi and 10 other senior IRG officers. What was not reported at the time of his death is that Kazemi was responsible for the production and development of Iran’s Shihab missiles, which are capable of delivering a nuclear warhead into the heart of Europe. Before that, Kazemi was active as an adviser to Hizbullah in southern Lebanon. Covert operations with similar results to last week’s plane crash, Shoval insisted, were the only real way to delay Iran’s nuclear plan. An air raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, he said, would ultimately fail since some of the reactors are hidden deep in underground bunkers. Therefore Israel had the best chance at thwarting the program by sabotaging one of the reactors and causing nuclear fallout, he said. “The goal is not to stop the plan since that is almost impossible,” the former security official said. “We need to delay it by five years and hope that within that period the current Iranian government will be overturned.” Former IDF deputy chief of staff Maj.-Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan backed up Shoval’s call on Israel to engage in covert operations but also hinted that the government needed to act “on a personal level” against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “Israel needs to tell Ahmadinejad that he is held personally responsible for his actions,” Dayan said. “He calls for the destruction of the State of Israel and he needs to know that his end will be like the end of Israel’s former enemies.” Dayan – who is running for the Knesset at the head of the Tafnit Party – called on the government to engage in operations that could not be traced back to Israel as it works to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear power. Kazemi is not the first Iranian rocket scientist to meet an unnatural demise. A few years ago, Col. Ali Mahmud Mimand, the godfather of the Shihab-3, was found dead at his desk. The Mossad was blamed, but Iranian insiders said he had been tortured to death by the Revolutionary Guard on suspicion of spying for the Americans or Israel. Covert options against enemy states’ endeavors to get weapons of mass destruction are not alien to Israel. Mysterious bombings of equipment destined for Iraq’s nuclear program and the assassinations of Iraqi nuclear scientists in Europe in the early 1980s were widely blamed on the Mossad. Last year, Iran accused the US and Israeli agents of tricking Iranian nuclear scientists abroad into giving away crucial information. “Israel needs to work to create a unified international bloc that will move the Iranian issue from diplomatic channels to real sanctions on Iran,” Dayan said. “Israel also needs to take steps to thwart the plan with operations that it can deny. If all else fails, and there is no other alternative, then we should launch an overt strike.” Not all analysts agree with Shoval and Dayan. Ephraim Kam – the deputy head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies and an expert on Iran – called on Israel to stick solely to the diplomatic course and to refrain from engaging in any military action unless as a last resort. “Covert operations will not do anything,” said Kam, who served as a colonel in the Research Division of IDF Military Intelligence until 1993. “These types of operations cannot stop the program. Sabotaging planes won’t stop anything.” Ultimately, most experts agreed that covert actions could only delay Iran’s efforts to go nuclear but not kill off the plan. The sabotage and assassinations against the Iraqi efforts only slowed down Saddam Hussein but didn’t deter him, they pointed out. In the end, Israel took the overt course, and bombed the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981.

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Shabtai Shoval, author of The Chosen One, spent years as a writer of political and security scenarios for the Israeli Defense Forces.  In this novel, he brings to bear the extensive knowledge he has accumulated in order to place the reader within an horrific scenario; one, which considering the progress of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, could very well become a reality in our not so distant future.  Shoval served in an elite covert combat unit; worked with the intelligence community; was a staffer in the Israeli Embassy in Washington D.C.; and served as advisor to the office of the Prime Minister.  In the business world, Shoval was President of the Israeli Cable TV Association; a Vice President of Telrad Holdings, a Telecom investment company; and a division head at Comverse Inc.  Today he is the owner of a high-tech company which focuses on security and law-enforcement solutions.

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iranmossad@gmail.com